Foresight is a forecast defining a vision of the future. It is assumed that there may be several scenarios for the development. The implementation of any of them depends on specific actions. We chose the foresight method because it not only shows what may happen, but can indicate what actions will lead to the fulfillment of a given scenario.

Metoda foresight została dobrana do obecnego etapu rozwoju rynku systemów bezzałogowych. Wypracujemy wspólnie sposób myślenia, który zapewni jego szybki rozwój.   W procesie tworzenia wizji rozwoju sektora będzie możliwość wykorzystania koncepcji wniesionych przez nowych uczestników debaty. Należy zwrócić uwagę na akceptację społeczną, wyzwania środowiskowe, ekonomiczne, urbanistyczne oraz zarządcze tak samo jak na czynnik technologiczny. Rozpoczynamy debatę aby sprowokować do postawienia ważnych dla sektora pytań.

Currently, the UAV industry is at a critical moment. Transitional provisions for issuing simplified flight permits will apply until the end of 2025. Some say that in two years this will lead to the inhibition of the industry's development.

In accordance with Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/947, December 31, 2023 was the deadline for UAV operators to submit declarations on the performance of operations in accordance with national NSTS scenarios. The transitional period that allowed some UAVs to operate in the open category is also ending.

In turn, from January 1, 2024, flights in a special category can only be carried out by UAVs equipped with an active and current remote identification system, and it becomes possible to perform operations in accordance with standard STS scenarios.

Additionally, despite the obligation to certify UAVs and assign classes from C0-C6, the amendment to the aviation law in Poland has not been approved. As a result, we have certifying institutions in Poland that have passed audits but cannot receive notification. To this should be added the waiting time for issuing flight permits in a special category – there are so many applications that the waiting time for issuing a flight permit is 2-4 months. For companies providing drone services, this makes it difficult to conduct their operations and arrange service delivery dates with the customer. All these conditions threaten to slow down the development of the UAV industry and can cause an outflow of intellectual capital from Poland along with the developed innovations.

Experts and market participants work from January to July to develop scenarios for the development of the drone market, along with identifying key factors that will influence the future. We will develop not only a vision but also indicate ways to implement it. Foresight aims to identify future needs, opportunities and threats related to the development of the industry in the following aspects: technology, legal regulations, business and social acceptance.